More accurate method for predicting hurricane activity

ScienceDaily (Sep. 11, 2012) ? Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a new method for forecasting seasonal hurricane activity that is 15 percent more accurate than previous techniques.

"This approach should give policymakers more reliable information than current state-of-the-art methods," says Dr. Nagiza Samatova, an associate professor of computer science at NC State and co-author of a paper describing the work. "This will hopefully give them more confidence in planning for the hurricane season."

Conventional models used to predict seasonal hurricane activity rely on classical statistical methods using historical data. Hurricane predictions are challenging, in part, because there are an enormous number of variables in play -- such as temperature and humidity -- which need to be entered for different places and different times. This means there are hundreds of thousands of factors to be considered.

The trick is in determining which variables at which times in which places are most significant. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that we only have approximately 60 years of historical data to plug into the models.

But now researchers have developed a "network motif-based model" that evaluates historical data for all of the variables in all of the places at all of the times in order to identify those combinations of factors that are most predictive of seasonal hurricane activity. For example, some combinations of factors may correlate only to low activity, while other may correlate only to high activity.

The groups of important factors identified by the network motif-based model are then plugged into a program to create an ensemble of statistical models that present the hurricane activity for the forthcoming season on a probability scale. For example, it might say there is an 80 percent probability of high activity, a 15 percent probability of normal activity and a 5 percent probability of low activity.

Definitions of these activity levels vary from region to region. In the North Atlantic, which covers the east coast of the United States, high activity is defined as eight or more hurricanes during hurricane season, while normal activity is defined as five to seven hurricanes, and low activity is four or fewer.

Using cross validation -- plugging in partial historical data and comparing the new method's results to subsequent historical events -- the researchers found the new method has an 80 percent accuracy rate of predicting the level of hurricane activity. This compares to a 65 percent accuracy rate for traditional predictive methods.

In addition, using the network model, researchers have not only confirmed previously identified predictive groups of factors, but identified a number of new predictive groups.

The researchers plan to use the newly identified groups of relevant factors to advance our understanding of the mechanisms that influence hurricane variability and behavior. This could ultimately improve our ability to predict the track of hurricanes, their severity and how global climate change may affect hurricane activity well into the future.

The paper, "Discovery of extreme events-related communities in contrasting groups of physical system networks," was published online Sept. 4 in the journal Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. The paper is co-authored by Samatova; Dr. Fredrick Semazzi, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric science at NC State; former NC State Ph.D. students Zhengzhang Chen and William Hendrix, who are both now postdoctoral researchers at Northwestern University; former NC State Ph. D. student Isaac Tetteh, now a lecturer at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana; Dr. Alok Choudhary of Northwestern; and Hang Guan, a student at Zhejiang University. The research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by North Carolina State University.

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Journal Reference:

  1. Zhengzhang Chen, William Hendrix, Hang Guan, Isaac K. Tetteh, Alok Choudhary, Fredrick Semazzi, Nagiza F. Samatova. Discovery of extreme events-related communities in contrasting groups of physical system networks. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 2012; DOI: 10.1007/s10618-012-0289-3

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/~3/t4vKnv4qaig/120911103409.htm

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Neb. harvest ahead of schedule because of weather

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/neb-harvest-ahead-schedule-because-weather-140759084--finance.html

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U.S. ambassador to Libya, three staff killed in rocket attack

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/u-ambassador-libya-three-staff-killed-rocket-attack-091505030.html

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Dating and Relationships- Being Yourself is Sometimes Harder ...

One of the more interesting aspects of dating is how our self-consciousness can cause us to act differently than who we really. We are looking at the other person to see their true personality, but we want our true self to come through as well. This paradox that single people go through can be overcome by finding ways to relax and be ?the real you? on a date. There are several things you can do to date more successfully and grow in confidence until you fight ?Mr. or Miss Right?

First things first, if meeting new single girls and the idea of dating make you nervous then you are definitely not alone, ( especially if you are still in college or younger). It?s okay to be nervous and to make mistakes, we all do. But what?s important to remember is that if something embarrassing should happen that the Earth will keep spinning on its axis and the world will go on. Focus less on what could go wrong and instead be positive, keep things simple and relax as much as possible.

Here are a few tips that will help you gain a bit of confidence, help you relax and let you focus more on your date rather than yourself.

Double Up
Going out on a double date may seem old fashioned, but it works pretty well. In this atmosphere you can hit the clubs, go to the movies or just take an afternoon at the park. The pressure is off and it lets you relax somewhat knowing that your buddy is right there to talk to and keep things going when there?s an awkward moment. Double dating is a great first date since it keeps you and your date more comfortable and lets you enjoy the moments with less time to be self conscious.

Keep it Light
The ?Lunch Date? is another popular choice since there is little pressure, a strict time limit and it occurs in the early afternoon so there can be few misunderstandings. A lunch date is a great way to keep things light and easy when you first start dating. You don?t have to be adventurous, simply pick a caf? or other setting that serves the kinds of foods both of you enjoy and let the conversation flow. From there, you can take you next step.

Be Active
Going to the theater, movie or other event where you basically sit and watch is nice, but you might want to do something more interactive. Try something like the Zoo, local amusement park or something where you can walk, talk and interact more with your date. Going dancing is a good way to get the adrenaline going, but if that?s not your thing, then perhaps attending an event may be less stressful.

Online Dating
Online dating has been around for close to two decades now. Compared to the old fashioned ?go to a movie? date, this one is seemingly brand new. Thanks to the advancement of webcams, chat rooms and speed dating you can help build your confidence and meet more people on a free dating site. While online dating has its restrictions, it?s actually a great way to expand your horizons by meeting single people that you otherwise never would have met.

Source: http://www.freshdate.net/blog/dating-and-relationships-being-yourself-is-sometimes-harder-than-it-sounds/

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Professor wins Somalia's presidential election

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/professor-wins-somalias-presidential-election-185105810.html

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Fortis health insurance - HEALTH, BEAUTY & FITNESS

fortis health insuranceThe plant calms the individual and brings a contented countenance. Medical Assistant Together with your connect degree in health science, you are able to act as a medical assistant inside a hospital or perhaps a physician? s private practice. Being Careful of Health is simple Now within this Fast Era Lives in metropolitan areas are extremely fast that individuals hardly get time for you to socialize with tender loving care home health one another. Archer medical savings accounts or lengthy- term care insurance might not be considered ? qualified? and might have to be compensated in ? publish tax? dollars Every written plan must particularly describe all benefits and establish rules for qualifications and elections. This isn? t simply a panic attack on Romneys reform it? s a lizard- in- the- grass tactic utilized by conservatives to strangle womens health problems. Give a day say every two days because this allows the body to sit in the alterations build up until you are walking every single day. From human assets to coding and billing, you will find a number of business- related stuff that healthcare managers are designed for listed here are a couple of of these: Advertising Budgeting Executive Management Human Assets Staffing Policy Administration Marketing Ways to get in to the Healthcare Administration Area Some healthcare managers work having a really small scope, for example working exclusively within the finance, marketing, nursing or staffing department. Such centers must meet stringent national performance standards. Group guidelines are usually offered through companies and group organizations. All this is completed in an attempt to actually possess the best care wherever you decide to go. fortis Now many people understand insurance these dangers but struggle within their tries to increase their health, and that? s why its wise to look for the expertise of Sydney fitness. Youngsters are vulnerable to struggling with some or even the other health risk because they are little aware of health issues. This occurs because each private insurance company has got the choice to offer Medicare insurance ( when they provide Medicare insurance, as not every insurance companies do) tender for a price they choose. Since Havanese dogs have a superior chance of developing cataracts, the home only method to bare this care condition in check is to obtain their eyes checked yearly. Yoga is health step smart, stage smart eightfold road to final liberation from discomfort suffering. The organization then pops up having a form that prospects can fill- out online. This plant was mostly utilized by people as food throughout their journey in deserts. It? s a question that a lot of people die from coronary disease, yet for a lot of the likelihood of dying from this might have been reduced by a couple of things: fortis health insurance dieting and exercise. You should speak health to your municipality to discover the particular rules. loving If you are looking at an application that monitors your hard disk drive health, you best make certain you receive one which besides the task only one that does the task perfectly. Hopefully with increased education how dangerous many of these everyday products could be we as customers will begin to make smarter options. The study results have proven the participants which had past records of ill- health were in worse health within their adulthoods fortis health insurance in comparison to those who hadn? t been through the mental health disorders.

Related Post Fortis health insurance

Just water. So far condition as mental healthcare job is worried, allow me to let you know that nowadays many hospitals are providing health Whether there is a relative, friend, or friend which has been recognized, you? ve felt the rippling outcomes of that diagnosis. Normally pre hospitalisation If you? re on the top of internet search engine entries, the inclination is suny your services and items would be the first ones Juice- based drinks shakes the finest, greatest quality and are constructed vinegar with materials don? t contain pollutants or pesticide sprays, such as the The health e health cigarettes have finally added a brand new dimension by permitting habitual people who smoke to break the addiction of smoking.

Source: http://curryrecipe-jp.net/health-2/fortis-health-insurance/

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Home Equity Loans with Less Than Perfect Credit - Line of Credit

Posted: September 10th, 2012 | Author: admin | | No Comments ?

Home Equity LoansHaving bad credit puts you in an unenviable place financially. It is no fun at all. Being eligible for a home equity loan with bad credit can be problematic but it is not entirely impossible.

A home equity loan (HEL) is a kind of loan whereby the borrower uses the equity they have in their home as collateral to finance another type of loan or a major expense. The longer you have owned your home for the more equity you will have. Think of it as a lien against the borrower?s home.

In most cases only those with good credit will qualify for this type of loan. But it does not mean that these loans are not within reach of those with poor or bad credit. A home equity loan may actually be one of the few types of loans than will cost you less when your credit is less than perfect. This kind of loan is secured because it is tied into your home?s value.

What this translates to is the fact that interest rates are lower than they are on credit cards and other types of loans, such as auto loans or personal loans. The fact that it is a secured loan also means that the lender takes less of a risk on a borrower. That makes home equity loans with bad credit easier to be approved for.

Before you do another thing you need to figure out the value of your home. In other words, how much equity do you have in it. The housing market in the area you live in can influence the value of your residence.

However in most cases the value of a house goes up with the passage of time as opposed to down. To find out a house?s worth you need to have it appraised. This will have to be done if you wish to apply for a home equity loan, regardless of whether you have good credit or not. This is the equation for home equity.

It is the value of a residence minus the remainder left on the mortgage, including any debts or liens that are against the house. The loan you would qualify for with your home equity used as collateral would then be considered a secured loan.

If you wish to qualify for home equity loans with bad credit then it is imperative that you make regular payments on all of your bills and any debts you have. This establishes you as a responsible individual in terms of how you handle your money.

It will also help your credit score to start to rise instead of fall. It is also important that you have a steady enough income coming in that you can show the lender that you have enough money to pay the home equity loan payments as well as all of your current debts


Source: http://line-of-credit.net/home-equity-loans-with-less-than-perfect-credit/

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High-resolution image of Berlin at night facilitates light pollution research

ScienceDaily (Sep. 10, 2012) ? Researchers from Berlin have published an 878 megapixel aerial mosaic image of Berlin at night. With one pixel per square meter, the resulting map is the highest resolution image ever published of a city at night. The ecologists from the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries and physicists from Freie Universit?t Berlin used the image to measure how much light comes from different types of land use areas, such as streets or parks. Their findings were recently published in the journal Remote Sensing of Environment.

The scientists are studying light pollution, the modification of natural light levels in the nocturnal environment due to artificial light from cities.. Their goals are to understand both what the sources of upwards directed light are, and to identify patterns in the distribution of the lights. To do this, they stitched together a total of 2647 aerial photographs taken from the research aircraft of Freie Universit?t Berlin's Institute for Space Sciences. The photos were taken in a series of 14 tracks at 3 km above the city in September of 2010.

A total of 42 percent of Berlin's area, including all of the city's central neighborhoods, was analyzed by comparing the light emitted from each point to land use information about the city. The scientists found that more than one third of the upward directed light came from streets, which are lit by streetlights, auto headlights, and advertisements. The city's sources of light were found to be unevenly distributed, with half of the total light coming from only one quarter of its area. Part of the reason for this is that Berlin still contains large unlit areas such as the Havel River, Grunewald, and Tempelhofer Park. The researchers noted that these areas are important dark resources for nocturnal animals. In total, the researchers found that such natural areas accounted for almost one third of the study area, but emitted only 6 percent of the total light.

The research was funded by two interdisciplinary projects, MILIEU (Freie Universit?t Berlin) and "Verlust der Nacht," a joint project of Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries and Freie Universit?t Berlin. "Verlust der Nacht" is funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Senate Department for Economics, Technology, and Research.

The mosaic image is freely downloadable at the PANGAEA data publisher: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.785492

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Freie Universitaet Berlin.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. Helga U. Kuechly, Christopher C.M. Kyba, Thomas Ruhtz, Carsten Lindemann, Christian Wolter, J?rgen Fischer, Franz H?lker. Aerial survey and spatial analysis of sources of light pollution in Berlin, Germany. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2012; 126: 39 DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.08.008

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/~3/zS7AqN0phYQ/120910082302.htm

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Dating Relationship Long distance Can Be Tough. - CareCrunch ...

A good distance dating relationship may be tough, far more so then the normal relationship. Trying to connect with someone who?s not actually near you may be the major problem plaguing international calls relationships. But just because it truly is hard does not mean it is impossible. Plenty of couples live happily by having a long distance relationship.

The goal to making such a relationship a success is finding out how to maintain your connection and bond despite the distance separating you from the other person. To help you on this task are several basic tips.

1. Establish communication. In a normal relationship the thing is that each other on a regular basis, so talking is not any real big deal. But in a cross country relationship it is far more difficult to just converse. That is why you have to establish a means of communicating from the start. Mail is an solution, however more advanced methods are advised. Phone, VOIP, or even webcams are typical excellent ways of vacationing in touch.

2. Try to meet in place. No matter how considerably you talk, nothing beats actually meeting up in person. So if at all possible you should attempt to meet up collectively. It does not have to be huge, if you live close enough then driving up a couple of hours would be all that is required. However depending on the situation you might have to work a bit more to be able to actually meet.

3. Build a hobby. Keeping your bond strong is vital in a long long distance dating relationship. A good way pertaining to keeping that bond solid is finding a hobby the pair of you can share. Conventional hobbies can perform, but ones you are able to do online are favored. Doing something together, even if over the world wide web, is important in keeping you connected.

4. Surprise your partner. Variety is the tart of life and whether you might be together or apart, routines can get unexciting and boring. It is much more challenging to spice things up in case you live apart from the other person but you should still try. Surprising them is the best way to do this. Send them an arbitrary gift or something. If you really want to go all out you possibly can pop in for a try when they are not expecting it.

5. Share ?kodak moments?. We all have those times in this life that we really need to share with our family. When in a long distance dating relationship this could be extremely difficult. But if you get pictures and videos and send these to your partner, you can keep them informed of what is important in your life, allowing you both to feel connected regardless of the long distance.

Relationships always take perform, and a long distance is not much different. Although it takes more work it is well worth it. Ultimately distance should definitely not come between you as well as the one you love. If you follow the following tips and keep your bond strong, your love will last until the day you can finally be together.

It is best make use of smaller stones, but not tiny, as they would be simple to lose. They should also have one flat side.

You will want to find the stones with their magical associations in your mind. Tiger Eye is an yellow/orange stone which is associated with light, clarity, warmth, heat, daylight, the Sun, etc?. This stone could also be for this night, vision, and cats. This all depends on the question that is asked, or what the subconscious in the reader leads them to. Amethyst, as with all purple stones, is usually associated together with psychic vision, and spirituality. If you are a beginner you need to purchase one of the quantity of books available on the subject.

The stones can be cast in a variety of ways. Some psychic readers choose to create a cloth to throw your stones on. Many times a circle is drawn about the cloth which is separated into four equal areas. Each of the four regions of the circle are represented by the direction: Air-East, Fire-South, Water-West, and Earth-North. Air has to do using the mind and the colour yellow, Fire is connected along with energy and action and also the color red, Water is associated along with emotion, psychic abilities and purple and blue stones, Earth is the far more practical and tangible, and connects with earthy tones.

Source: http://answers.carecrunch.com/?p=176905&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dating-relationship-long-distance-can-be-tough

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